Thesis

A thesis is not a directional opinion. It is a testable statement about what the market is mechanically doing right now. It names three things: what behavior is present, on which timeframe, and the specific condition under which the claim is wrong. A valid thesis sounds like: buyers are dominant on the H1, friction has been low across the last eight candles, and the thesis is invalidated if the most recent swing low within the expansion is broken. An invalid thesis sounds like: the trend is up so I'm long. The difference is falsifiability — and falsifiability is what makes an exit possible before emotion decides it.