Thesis Weakening

Thesis weakening is the signal between a clean pullback and full invalidation. Four observable markers: counter-direction bodies appearing (downward aggression being held through closes in an upward expansion), the pullback itself developing expansion characteristics in the counter-direction, overlap into prior expansion territory reaching a meaningful threshold, and multiple consecutive counter-direction closes. None of these is conclusive alone. Two or more present simultaneously across the same recent candles is a meaningful signal that the thesis is deteriorating — even if the mechanical wrong point has not been reached. The appropriate response is a decision grounded in what is observed, not in how you feel about the position.